Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility

This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows.

Gambling-Motivated Market Attention and Stock Market Volatility

Retail investors show gambling preferences and pay greater attention to the market than individual stocks. Previous studies report a positive and significant relationship between market attention and volatility. This relationship results from the joint effects of attention to investment-motivated and gambling-motivated components. However, the separate roles of these two components have not yet been examined. Hence, this study applied principal component analysis to identify the gambling-motivated component from market attention and gambling-related variables. The investment-motivated component is the regression residual of the market's attention paid to the gambling-motivated component. This study linearly relates these two components to volatility. The generalized method of moments regression was used to resolve endogeneity problems and biased estimates. The Google search volume index is a proxy for unobserved retail investors' market attention. Using a daily sample of the Thai market from August 6, 2008, to September 30, 2022 (a total of 3,450 observations), this study found a positive relationship between market attention and stock market volatility. This relationship results from the positive effects of both investment-motivated and gambling-motivated components. Attention to gambling is more influential than attention to investment. The explanatory powers of gambling-attention and investment-attention for volatility were 81.33% and 18.67%, respectively. These effects were less pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Corporate Social Responsibility: A Business Strategy That Promotes Energy Environmental Transition and Combats Volatility in the Post-Pandemic World

Corporate social responsibility can assist in reducing the noise caused by pricing volatility and a lack of energy-efficient business solutions. The study's objective is twofold: (i) to investigate the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in reducing volatility through the contribution of energy-efficient strategies;(ii) to identify research trends in the field that may indicate future research directions for the development of more dynamic strategies that will help in mitigating the impact of pricing volatility. A five-step bibliometric analysis was applied to address the research question. The findings were visualized by using bibliometric tools such as R Studio, Biblioshiny, and VOSViewer. Chinese academics have been revealed as pioneers in integrating CSR into corporate strategies to reduce volatility and support energy-efficient investments. Moreover, results indicate that financial institutions must embrace a new business model based on both CSR and environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) principles. Since very little is known about the interaction structure between CSR and ESG in the mitigation of price volatility, the purpose of this article is to bridge that knowledge gap. The pioneering character of this research—the construction of a business model based on the principles of CSR and ESG—contributes significantly to both the field's knowledge and the practice of corporate sustainability management.

Volatility forecasting with Hybrid-long short-term memory models: Evidence from the COVID-19 period

Volatility forecasting, a central issue in financial risk modelling and management, has attracted increasing attention after several major financial market crises. In this article, we draw upon the literature on volatility forecasting and hybrid models to construct the Hybrid-long short-term memory (LSTM) models to forecast the intraday realized volatility in three major US stock indexes. We construct the hybrid models by combining one or multiple traditional time series models with the LSTM model, and incorporating either the estimated parameters, or the predicted volatility, or both from the statistical models as additional input values into the LSTM model. We perform the out-of-sample test of our Hybrid-LSTM models in volatility forecasting during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. Empirical results show that the Hybrid-LSTM models can still significantly improve the volatility forecasting performance of the LSTM model during the COVID-19 period. By analysing how the construction methods may influence the forecasting performance of the Hybrid-LSTM models, we provide some suggestions on their design. Finally, we identify the optimal Hybrid-LSTM model for each stock index and compare its performance with the LSTM model on each day during our sample period. We find that the Hybrid-LSTM models' great capability of capturing market dynamics explains their good performance in forecasting. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Resilience of Environmental and Social Stocks under Stress: Lessons from the COVID‐19 Pandemic

This paper examines whether environmental and social (ES) activities affect the resiliency of firms during the COVID‐19 crisis. We study a sample of 330 firms operating in five developed countries: Canada, France, Japan, the UK and the US. Our analysis shows that US firms with a high ES ranking experienced a significantly lower stock price range volatility during the Covid stock market rundown of February‐March 2020. Such findings also hold for Japanese firms but only later on after the introduction of government support. In terms of returns, compared to their peers with a low ES ranking, Japanese and UK stock prices with a high ES ranking suffered more during and after the market rundown. For other countries, we do not find significant differences in stock price behavior based on ES ratings. Our findings suggest that engaging with ES activities is not associated with a better or worse performance during crisis times, which has important implications for investors and managers.

COVID-19 VACCINATION, GOVERNMENT STRICT POLICY AND CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES

The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the volatility of the stock market in the ASEAN region. Mass vaccination and strictness policies are government efforts to tackle stock market losses. Hence, this study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 vaccination and the stringent government policies on the volatility of stock markets in ASEAN countries. We collected the daily index prices, the number of vaccines, and the stringency index from 13 January 2020 to 31 August 2021. Using the GJR-GARCH model (1, 1) and Generalized Least Square regression, this study found that the mass vaccination had a negative effect on stock market volatility, whereas the government's stringent policies had a positive effect. Mass vaccination tends to increase the confidence of economic actors, impacting investors' confidence in the stability of the stock market. Meanwhile, the government's strict policies have caused uncertainty among economic actors and investors regarding the economic prospects during the pandemic, leading to high levels of volatility. Therefore, governments must promote more aggressive vaccination policies, thereby reducing stringent policies for economic agents. © 2023, Bulgarska Akademiya na Naukite. All rights reserved.

Stock markets' reaction to COVID-19: the joint impact of uncertainty avoidance culture and government response–evidence from emerging countries

Purpose: The authors examine whether the uncertainty avoidance culture and the stringency of government response play a role in shaping the stock market's response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The authors find that investors' response to the pandemic will not only depend on their instinct of uncertainty aversion but also on their expectation about the effectiveness of the government measures. The uncertainty avoidance culture amplifies the irrational actions of investors. However, harsh government responses will weaken this effect. Harsh government responses also send a negative signal to the market about the extent of the pandemic and the economic damage caused by anti-COVID measures. Governments need to be balanced in imposing anti-COVID measurements to preserve market confidence. Design/methodology/approach: In this article, the authors investigate whether the stock market volatility of emerging countries is simultaneously driven by two factors: the uncertainty-aversion culture of investors in a country and the stringency of the government's response to the pandemic. The authors conduct an empirical study on a sample of 20 emerging countries during the period from January 2020 to March 2021. Findings: The authors find that the national-level uncertainty aversion amplifies the irrational actions of investors during the period of crisis. However, harsh government responses will weaken this effect. The authors' findings show evidence that investors' response to the pandemic will not only depend on their instinct of uncertainty aversion but also on their expectation about the effectiveness of the government measures. Although harsh government responses can stabilize the investors' sentiment in countries with high levels of uncertainty aversion, they also send a negative signal to the market about the extent of the pandemic as well as the economic damage caused by anti-COVID measures. Originality/value: First, the study's results complement evidence from existing studies on the effect of uncertainty avoidance culture in determining stock market responses to COVID-19. Second, an important difference from previous studies, this paper adds to the behavioral finance literature by showing that investors' investment decisions in the face of economic uncertainty are not driven solely by their cultural values but also by their expectation about the effectiveness of the government policy. During a crisis, when the market has neither rational information nor adequate experience to forecast the future, the government must play an important role in stabilizing investors' sentiment and reactions. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Climate policy uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from different sectors

This paper mainly investigates whether the climate policy uncertainty index (CPU) can predict the volatility of Chinese stock market volatility considering different sectors. Out-of-sample results show that climate policy uncertainty index can have a greater effect on the utility sector. We also investigate the effects of CPU based on longer horizons, different volatility levels and the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper tries to provide new evidence based on sector stock indices. © 2022

Reactive or Immune: Stock Market Behaviour During Subsequent Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, since its onset, has erupted in waves over the past two years. Previous studies investigated the initial impact of the outbreak on stock market returns. This study extends the investigation of the impact on stock market returns during subsequent waves of the pandemic. A panel data regression of stock market returns to covid variables during the three waves indicated that the initial fear of the disease did not persist through the later waves and the fear factor of the disease spread, deaths and lockdowns faded with every subsequent wave. Investors reacted differently to certain COVID variables. The daily count of total cases and daily deaths were the variables of interest for the first wave, whereas, for subsequent waves, the growth in daily new cases was the most prominent. The country-wise analysis over periods of waves of the pandemic revealed that investor behaviours varied among countries with no identifiable pattern indicating the significance of societal behaviours affecting investor decisions, especially during the crises.

When the market got the first dose: Stock volatility and vaccination campaign in COVID-19 period.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the news of clinical trials for vaccines and mass vaccinations have brought renewed optimism for stabilizing the economy and financial markets. However, the mental stress of investors or doubt about the effectiveness of government policies to cope with economic disruptions has caused stock market volatility. We investigate the significance of the vaccination rate in alleviating the global stock market volatility which is measured by the GJR-GARCH model. We discover that a higher vaccine initiation rate has a positive effect on global stock markets, especially in developed countries and areas with higher rates than their average. Our findings remain reliable even when using different projected volatility models and other estimates of the main independent variables. Mass immunization also implies that governments will not have to take extreme measures to handle the pandemic, which alleviates investor worries about compliance and the prolonged effects of COVID-19. Our research indicates that global stock markets are providing insight into the economic value of the development of COVID-19 vaccines, even before public vaccinations start.

The day-of-the-week effect on global stock market volatility after a market shock

This paper suggests new evidence for the recent surge of the day-of-the-week effect on market volatility after a stock market shock. Using global market indices, this study revisits the day-of-the-week effect on market volatility and provides the first evidence of Tuesday's low volatility after the COVID-19 shock. We also find no evidence of a day-of-the-week volatility effect from the analysis of the pre-COVID-19 period. Overall, our results provide implications for the investment decision-making and risk management of portfolio managers after a market shock.

Climate policy uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from different sectors

This paper mainly investigates whether the climate policy uncertainty index (CPU) can predict the volatility of Chinese stock market volatility considering different sectors. Out-of-sample results show that climate policy uncertainty index can have a greater effect on the utility sector. We also investigate the effects of CPU based on longer horizons, different volatility levels and the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper tries to provide new evidence based on sector stock indices.

The impact of social cohesion on stock market resilience: Evidence from COVID-19

We investigate whether cultural tightness, the strength of social norms, provides stock markets with resilience to external shocks. There is tension in forming expectations regarding this. One reasoning, particularly following from cultural archaeology literature, is that societies best cope with challenges, disaster recovery, and loss when they are culturally comfortable with transformation, with cultural tightness arguably opposed to cultural change. On the other hand, alternative reasoning is that tightness allows for societal cohesion that supports optimism to function in a unified way to confront challenge. We test whether markets were supported by cultural tightness during COVID-19 adversity. In accordance with the latter view, we evidence that stock market volatilities during COVID-19 were significantly lower in countries with ‘tighter’ cultures.

Effect of Covid-19 on Aviation Industry- A case study of American Airlines and Air China Ord Shs H

The airline industry was one of the industries that significantly impacted on a large scale the most during the Covid-19 pandemic. Resulting from the airline is one of the most convenient travel choices around the globe. Consequently, the pandemic makes the airline industry the most precarious and volatile and thus, making businesses difficult to continue. Some of the factors that influenced the operation of the airline industry include limitation to travel due to lockdowns and curfew systems adopted by various countries, capacity cut to abide by the World Health Organization protocols of social distancing, stock market financial bailout, government regulations, and labor and employment. This study discusses the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market in the case of the American Airline Group Inc. and Air China Ord Shs A. Since These two companies operate under the same industry but different markets, the study also explores the volatility of stock markets in other countries. © 2022 ACM.

Comparison of International Stock market Volatility: An Empirical Analysis during Economic Crisis 2008 and Covid-19

The repercussions occasionally are more detrimental than the storm. Similar is the scenario of the Economic Crisis 2008. It was devastating at the moment, but the concern was more towards the time period it has prolonged in the economy. In mid-March 2020, when our honourable Prime Minister announced about the entire nation lockdown, Covid-19 was proven to be a pandemic that not only deteriorated the health of the nation but also was a revolutionary change for the economy as well. Hence, estimating volatility in such dreadful scenarios becomes extremely important. Earlier researchers have made an attempt to study the impact of these two devastating events individually. However, this study makes an attempt to provide a comparative analysis of the volatility of Economic Crisis 2008 and Covid 19 in order to observe the nature of volatility in two different events of top 10 economies which comprises 66% of the whole world's GDP and accordingly can be taken as intermediary to address the world's economy.The data has been bifurcated into two sections, first comprises of Economic Crisis 2008 Period ranging from 1st of January 2008 to 31st of May 2011. While second section comprises of Covid-19 Period ranging from January 1, 2020 to May 12, 2021. In order to estimate the volatility and effect GARCH, T-GARCH and E-GARCH models have been applied for the fulfilment of the objective. The results provide with the conclusion that there has been significant impact of both the events on the volatility of the stock market.The study can be beneficial for the financial analysts and, retail and individual investors in order to make a prudent decision in such extremities as it presents with an insight of how different economies react to different circumstances correspondingly. © The Electrochemical Society

The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Returns & Volatility: A Study of Thailand and Indian Bourses

The outbreak of COVID-19 has triggered a fall in the pandemic has completely changed the worldandtransformedour lives, the patterns of economies, and the behaviour of businesses. The market has the tendency to perceive long-term shocks which economy can give to the market, but contrary to generalization, short-term shocks are more vulnerable. The objective of the study was to provide an overview of the impact of the 'Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic Shockwaves on the returns and volatility of Thailand and Indian Stock Market. It also analysed whether both countries were reacting similarly to the pandemic. The data was divided into three categories, i.e. Before COVID-19 pandemic, During COVID-19 pandemic and the Whole Period collectively. The 'Pre-Pandemic Time Period' was taken from 1st July 2019 to 31st January 2020, 'During Pandemic Time Period' from 1st February 2020 to 31st August 2020 and the 'Whole Time Period' from 1st July 2019 to 31st August 2020. Three Stock Exchange Indices of both markets were monitored in the study. The standard GARCH models like GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH, and PARCH models were used to assess the volatility of both markets. The study revealed that the negative shocks had greateraimpact on these markets than the positive shocks during the pandemic period. However, most of the parameter estimates were found to be statistically significant in all models, which meant there was the presence of leverage effect in returns of both stock markets. © 2022 Thammasat University. All Rights Reserved.

THE IMPACT of COVID-19 on the VOLATILITY of BRICS STOCK RETURNS

This study analyzes for the first time the impact of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 on stock market volatility for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) using the GJR-GARCH model. We find that during the coronavirus period, Brazil, India, and South Africa exhibit very high volatility, with negative returns exceeding those faced by these indices during the 2008 financial crisis. On the other hand, the Russian and Chinese indices are shown to have faced greater volatility during the 2008 crisis than they have so far exhibited due to coronavirus. Furthermore, the results of the GJR-GARCH models show that COVID-19 variable has a significant positive impact on stock market volatility for Brazil, India, China, and South Africa but an insignificant impact for Russia. Moreover, of these nations, Brazil has thus far been most heavily affected by the virus, followed by South Africa, China, and India © 2022 AESS Publications.

The effect of COVID-19 on Indian stock market volatility: can economic package control the uncertainty?

Purpose The stock market has shown fluctuating degrees of volatility because of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in India. The present research aims to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 on the stock market volatility, and whether the economic package can control the market volatility or not, measured by a set of certain sector-level economic features and factors such as resilience variables. Design/methodology/approach We examine the correlation matrix, basic volatility model and robustness tests to determine the sector-level economic features and macroeconomic factors helpful in diminishing the volatility rising because of the COVID-19. Findings The outcomes of this study are significant as policymakers and financial analysts can apply these economic factors to set policy replies to handle the unexpected fluctuation in the stock market in sequence to circumvent any thinkable future financial crisis. Originality/value The originality of the paper is to measure the variables affecting the stock market volatility due to COVID-19, and understand the impact of capital market macroeconomic variables and dummy variables to theoretically explain the COVID-19 impact on stock market volatility.

Contagion effect of the USA market on Latin American financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper analyses the contagion effect on Latin American markets and the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic using the DCC-GARCH model. The main finding is the determination of the existence of a statistically significant contagion effect between the US and the markets of Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil during the crisis period, implying that these markets were exposed to external shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Particularly, Mexico and Brazil have a stronger link to the U.S. market. In addition, the volatility of the U.S. market has a significant effect on the conditional correlations of the Latin American markets.

Czech Stock Market Volatility before and during the Covid-19 Crisis

This paper deals with the analysis of the Czech stock market characterized by the Prague PX stock returns using the weekly data between January 1, 2017 and January 21, 2021 in order to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Two different approaches were applied, the asymmetric EGARCH model and the two-state Markov switching model. Both approaches confirmed the time-varying behaviour of stock returns and corresponding volatility during the analysed period reflecting the higher volatility not only during the Covid-19 period, but during the last quarter of 2018 attributable to the global economic slowdown, as well. Since the EGARCH model enabled to capture the volatility persistence and higher impact of negative shocks in comparison to positive shocks of the same magnitude, with the presented Markov switching model we were able to identify the probabilities with which each state occurred at each point in time. © Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Strategic Management and its Support by Information Systems 2021, SMSIS 2021.